Price Changes & Creating Squad Value When Youโ€™re On a Wildcard

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๐Ÿšจ Price Changes & Creating Squad Value When Youโ€™re On a Wildcard ๐Ÿšจ


Many people will now be triggering their Wildcard Chips ๐ŸŸ ahead of GW13 so I thought this might be useful to all you Wildcarders out thereโ€ผ๏ธ


๐Ÿ‘ป Here are a few tricks of the trade along with some basic information about price changes ๐Ÿ’ท to help newer and / or more inexperienced managers. These are the kind of things I was doing on my GW7/GW8 Wildcard that helped to harvest ๐ŸŒฝ ยฃ0.6m of extra value in my squad.

1๏ธโƒฃ Anyone that has already decided 100% to play their Wildcard should trigger ๐Ÿ”ซ it straight away. In fact they shouldโ€™ve done so as soon as the BGW12 deadline was reached. It doesnโ€™t matter that BGW12 is still active. Being on a Wildcard allows you to make unlimited free transfers so thereโ€™s no risk about buying a player who may subsequently get injured ๐Ÿ›ฌ๐Ÿค•. Itโ€™s one of very few times โฐ in FPL that making early transfers is absolutely the right thing to do ๐Ÿฆ‰.

2๏ธโƒฃ The reason you do what I explain in pt. 1 above is so that you can harvest ๐ŸŒฝsquad value. This is an important part of being on a Wildcard ๐ŸŸ as building up some squad value ๐Ÿ“ˆ (on a no risk basis) allows you to work to a bigger overall budget for your Wildcard itself but also further down the line when you come to Free Hit and play your second Wildcard etc. You can buy better FPL assets as youโ€™ve got more money to do so basically ๐Ÿง .

3๏ธโƒฃ In order to harvest ๐ŸŒฝ squad value ๐Ÿ’ท you need to know which players are expected to rise (and drop) in price each day ๐Ÿ“ˆ. I explain how you can find out that information in the details below.

๐Ÿ“Š There exist a number of 3rd party sites, models & algorithms that have developed a very close correlation between their own algorithms and the FPL price change models. This means that FPL managers can track such sites and see what the expected price changes are due to be on a daily basis. None of them are 100% accurate though so always treat with an element of cautionโ€ผ๏ธ Popular sites include: Live FPL, FF Fix and FPL Statistics (there are many others too though). We also highlight price changes on our own Page daily. I personally use FPL statistics as my main source ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ’ป.

4๏ธโƒฃ So if you see that a player is going to go up in value ๐Ÿ“ˆ you buy him on your Wildcard before he goes up by that ยฃ0.1m. You buy him irrespective of whether you want him in your team or notโ€ผ๏ธ That doesnโ€™t matter at this stage. The idea ๐Ÿ’ก is that you hope he also goes up by a further ยฃ0.1m before the next deadline and if he does, 1 of 2 things happensโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ You keep him and youโ€™ve got ยฃ0.2m of equity in him ๐Ÿ‘
๐Ÿ…ฑ๏ธ You sell him before the deadline and youโ€™ve made ยฃ0.1m for doing absolutely nothing ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ

5๏ธโƒฃ Be careful thoughโ€ฆwhen doing the above be sure that when youโ€™re buying your new (soon to rise in value ๐Ÿ“ˆ) player youโ€™re not selling someone from your team that also now costs more than when you bought them ๐Ÿ˜œโ€ผ๏ธ
โ€ฆso you only sell players from your Wildcard draft that you have no value tied up in basically ๐Ÿง .

6๏ธโƒฃ Drafts – when weโ€™re on a Wildcard we all play around with multiple drafts โœ๏ธ. This is of course fine and is part of the fun / mental torture. BUTโ€ฆwhen doing so make sure that you donโ€™t โ€˜confirmโ€™ the changes and accidentally lose some value from your team. For example, out of pure curiosity you may want to have a look at what a Wildcard draft without Haaland looks like. If you make a draft and confirm it though youโ€™ll be losing the value youโ€™ve tied up in Haalandโ€ผ๏ธ When you want him in on your next Wildcard draft youโ€™ll be buying him back for his price today not the price you originally bought him atโ€ผ๏ธ

Here are some other โ€˜Player Price Basics & Factsโ€™:
๐Ÿ“Š Player prices essentially change as a result of changes to ownership numbers (i.e. the due to the number of people buying and selling players). Indirectly this activity is of course itself dictated by things like player form, fixtures, injuries etc.

๐Ÿ“Š We donโ€™t know FPLโ€™s exact algorithm thatโ€™s used to trigger player price changes as it is NOT publicly available. FPL also retains an element of โ€˜discretionโ€™ when it comes to player price changesโ€ฆie they sometimes make decisions on pricing that donโ€™t seem to tally at all with player sale / purchase numbers โ€ผ๏ธ Itโ€™s also more difficult for the 3rd party price change sites to accurately predict price changes when there are a lot of managers on Wildcards and Free Hits.

๐Ÿ“Š A playerโ€™s price can change for a maximum of 3 times in a GW.
๐Ÿ“Š A playerโ€™s price can only change by ยฃ0.1m (in either direction) in a 24 hour period.
๐Ÿ“Š A playerโ€™s price can therefore go up or down by a maximum of ยฃ0.3m in a GW.

๐Ÿ”’ Some player prices are locked. Locks occur when a player is โ€˜red flaggedโ€™ (i.e. has a red flag next to their name on FPL because theyโ€™ve been ruled out of the next game(s) due to injury or suspension). Once the red flag ๐Ÿšฉ is removed the price remains locked for a period of 3 days and is then subject to change thereafter.

โฐ Price changes typically occur at around 1.30am (UK time) and always between 1am and 3am (UK time) on a daily basis

๐Ÿคฏ Due to all of the above many people focus (too much IMO) on player prices ๐Ÿคท๐Ÿผโ€โ™‚๏ธ. They โ€˜chaseโ€™ price increases and put that factor ahead of other key ๐Ÿ”‘ aspects they should be thinking about IMO. Itโ€™s only those on Wildcards and Free Hits that should be obsessing about prices.

๐Ÿ“ Note that you only receive half of any profit that youโ€™ve made when you come to sell a player. EGโ€ฆ
You buy Mo Salah for ยฃ13m and he rises to ยฃ13.6m. If you then choose to sell him you would only receive ยฃ13.3m (i.e. ยฃ0.3m of the ยฃ0.6m profit). Youโ€™d also have to pay the full price (i.e. the ยฃ13.6m if you wanted to buy him back a week later).

๐Ÿ“ Also note that you lose the full value of any lossโ€ฆi.e. you only ever get the playerโ€™s current actual price at the point that you sell them. E.G. If you bought Haaland at ยฃ11.5m and sold him when heโ€™d dropped to ยฃ11m you would only receive ยฃ11m for him (youโ€™d lose ยฃ0.5m).

๐Ÿ“๐Ÿ† Note that when we reach the โ€˜unlimited transfersโ€™ period (between GW16 and 17 when the World Cup is on) there will be NO price changes. All player prices will be locked ๐Ÿ”’ during that period of time. This is another reason why theyโ€™re not badging those โ€˜unlimited transfersโ€™ as a 3rd Wildcard.

<Admin #Chindle13 >

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