🚨 Price Changes & Creating Squad Value When You’re On a Wildcard 🚨
Many people will now be triggering their Wildcard Chips 🍟 ahead of GW13 so I thought this might be useful to all you Wildcarders out there‼️
👻 Here are a few tricks of the trade along with some basic information about price changes 💷 to help newer and / or more inexperienced managers. These are the kind of things I was doing on my GW7/GW8 Wildcard that helped to harvest 🌽 £0.6m of extra value in my squad.
1️⃣ Anyone that has already decided 100% to play their Wildcard should trigger 🔫 it straight away. In fact they should’ve done so as soon as the BGW12 deadline was reached. It doesn’t matter that BGW12 is still active. Being on a Wildcard allows you to make unlimited free transfers so there’s no risk about buying a player who may subsequently get injured 🛬🤕. It’s one of very few times ⏰ in FPL that making early transfers is absolutely the right thing to do 🦉.
2️⃣ The reason you do what I explain in pt. 1 above is so that you can harvest 🌽squad value. This is an important part of being on a Wildcard 🍟 as building up some squad value 📈 (on a no risk basis) allows you to work to a bigger overall budget for your Wildcard itself but also further down the line when you come to Free Hit and play your second Wildcard etc. You can buy better FPL assets as you’ve got more money to do so basically 🧠.
3️⃣ In order to harvest 🌽 squad value 💷 you need to know which players are expected to rise (and drop) in price each day 📈. I explain how you can find out that information in the details below.
📊 There exist a number of 3rd party sites, models & algorithms that have developed a very close correlation between their own algorithms and the FPL price change models. This means that FPL managers can track such sites and see what the expected price changes are due to be on a daily basis. None of them are 100% accurate though so always treat with an element of caution‼️ Popular sites include: Live FPL, FF Fix and FPL Statistics (there are many others too though). We also highlight price changes on our own Page daily. I personally use FPL statistics as my main source 👨💻.
4️⃣ So if you see that a player is going to go up in value 📈 you buy him on your Wildcard before he goes up by that £0.1m. You buy him irrespective of whether you want him in your team or not‼️ That doesn’t matter at this stage. The idea 💡 is that you hope he also goes up by a further £0.1m before the next deadline and if he does, 1 of 2 things happens…
🅰️ You keep him and you’ve got £0.2m of equity in him 👍
🅱️ You sell him before the deadline and you’ve made £0.1m for doing absolutely nothing 🤷♂️
5️⃣ Be careful though…when doing the above be sure that when you’re buying your new (soon to rise in value 📈) player you’re not selling someone from your team that also now costs more than when you bought them 😜‼️
…so you only sell players from your Wildcard draft that you have no value tied up in basically 🧠.
6️⃣ Drafts – when we’re on a Wildcard we all play around with multiple drafts ✍️. This is of course fine and is part of the fun / mental torture. BUT…when doing so make sure that you don’t ‘confirm’ the changes and accidentally lose some value from your team. For example, out of pure curiosity you may want to have a look at what a Wildcard draft without Haaland looks like. If you make a draft and confirm it though you’ll be losing the value you’ve tied up in Haaland‼️ When you want him in on your next Wildcard draft you’ll be buying him back for his price today not the price you originally bought him at‼️
Here are some other ‘Player Price Basics & Facts’:
📊 Player prices essentially change as a result of changes to ownership numbers (i.e. the due to the number of people buying and selling players). Indirectly this activity is of course itself dictated by things like player form, fixtures, injuries etc.
📊 We don’t know FPL’s exact algorithm that’s used to trigger player price changes as it is NOT publicly available. FPL also retains an element of ‘discretion’ when it comes to player price changes…ie they sometimes make decisions on pricing that don’t seem to tally at all with player sale / purchase numbers ‼️ It’s also more difficult for the 3rd party price change sites to accurately predict price changes when there are a lot of managers on Wildcards and Free Hits.
📊 A player’s price can change for a maximum of 3 times in a GW.
📊 A player’s price can only change by £0.1m (in either direction) in a 24 hour period.
📊 A player’s price can therefore go up or down by a maximum of £0.3m in a GW.
🔒 Some player prices are locked. Locks occur when a player is ‘red flagged’ (i.e. has a red flag next to their name on FPL because they’ve been ruled out of the next game(s) due to injury or suspension). Once the red flag 🚩 is removed the price remains locked for a period of 3 days and is then subject to change thereafter.
⏰ Price changes typically occur at around 1.30am (UK time) and always between 1am and 3am (UK time) on a daily basis
🤯 Due to all of the above many people focus (too much IMO) on player prices 🤷🏼♂️. They ‘chase’ price increases and put that factor ahead of other key 🔑 aspects they should be thinking about IMO. It’s only those on Wildcards and Free Hits that should be obsessing about prices.
📝 Note that you only receive half of any profit that you’ve made when you come to sell a player. EG…
You buy Mo Salah for £13m and he rises to £13.6m. If you then choose to sell him you would only receive £13.3m (i.e. £0.3m of the £0.6m profit). You’d also have to pay the full price (i.e. the £13.6m if you wanted to buy him back a week later).
📝 Also note that you lose the full value of any loss…i.e. you only ever get the player’s current actual price at the point that you sell them. E.G. If you bought Haaland at £11.5m and sold him when he’d dropped to £11m you would only receive £11m for him (you’d lose £0.5m).
📝🏆 Note that when we reach the ‘unlimited transfers’ period (between GW16 and 17 when the World Cup is on) there will be NO price changes. All player prices will be locked 🔒 during that period of time. This is another reason why they’re not badging those ‘unlimited transfers’ as a 3rd Wildcard.
<Admin #Chindle13 >