🚨GW7 Stream Of Consciousness 🌊🧠 🚨
🧠 Here is my weekly brain dump of thoughts as we head into the next GW.
💡 As always, take from it what you will and apply it to your own teams as you see fit 👊🏽
❌ I won’t be doing individual squad reviews so please don’t bother wasting my time and yours by tagging 🏷 me in any requests 🙏. The group is simply way too big to do what I did last season now.
🎢 Strap yourselves in as it’s a fairly long one again 🤣. Here we go…
🇳🇴 Haaland Magic 🪄…Goals 10 (1st), Shots 25 (2nd), Shots in Box 📦 24 (1st), Big Chances 14 (1st), XG 7.04 (1st), FPL Pts 67 (1st). He’s a monster 👹. Seems very strange to think that c. 20% of the game doesn’t own him.
🇦🇷 Since GW2 Brighton’s Mac Allister is the 2nd highest scoring player in FPL (behind only Haaland!) despite having just 1️⃣ touch in the box apart from the penalties he’s taken.‼️ Being on free kicks and pens is massive for this lad. His XGI without set pieces is virtually non-existent (0.06) which is something to be aware of. There are actually 99 (that’s not a typo) other midfielders in FPL with a better non-penalty XGI than the Argentinian‼️ I’m not saying he’s a bad pick but he comes with a health warning ☢️
🗓 …and we also now know that the GW8 fixture (Brighton v Palace) has been postponed and neither team will have a fixture in that GW. This makes Palace and Brighton assets a ‘don’t buy’ for me even though they DO play in GW7. For me personally it also means I won’t be including any of them on a Wildcard ahead of GW7 (Zaha 🇨🇮 would’ve been in otherwise but I’ll wait for him now). If you currently own some of those assets already I wouldn’t necessarily sell then ahead of GW7 though as they’ve got decent fixtures‼️
🧤Interesting to note the goalkeeper save percentages for 3 of the league’s higher profile stoppers…Shots saved: Ramsdale (57.7%), Mendy (55.2%) and Ederson (53.1%). Ederson is highly competent with his feet 🦶but not with his hands 🤲according to these metrics. He goes under the radar a bit with his glove work due to not making many obvious errors (unlike Mendy for example) + his feet are so so good but…he simply doesn’t make as many saves as you’d expect him to from the shots he faces 🤷♂️.
🥅 Talking of goalies…Newcastle have conceded the 5th highest number of shots in the PL but have the second best record for shots conceded (Spurs are 1st). That’s a powerful mix of stats as far as Nick Pope 📿 is concerned…very few goals conceded (5) and high saveable shots conceded‼️ Bonus and points magnet 🧲 right there. The Pope & Darlow goalie mix is an option albeit possibly not ideal blocking 1 Newcastle spot with a reserve goalie…you might well want Trippier and Isak for example at some point.
🏴 Ivan Toney Brentford has scored 52 goals and 19 assists in 96 appearances for the Bees 🐝…that’s rather good‼️ Nice 2 fixtures but then turn nasty enough. He’s clearly a big part of the conversation for those moving to 3 up front – Haaland 🔐, Toney, Mitrovic, Jesus, Kane and Isak are the major players in that conversation 🗣.
📈 Predicted points for the mid-priced forward lads GW7-GW12: Isak 🇸🇪 28.3 pts, Mitro 🇷🇸 27.7 pts, Toney 🏴 25.2 pts
🇪🇬 Salah’s not scored since GW3 and Wolves 🐺 have the joint best defence in the PL this season…but Mo has a 51% chance of scoring a goal in GW7 which ranks him 2nd this GW using that % metric. Haaland’s 🇳🇴at 60%, Darwin 🇺🇾46%, Toney 🏴42%, Jesus 41%, Isak 🇸🇪 39%, Diaz 🇨🇴37%.
🤔 Some thoughts on Liverpool’s problems…
1️⃣ I think that Liverpool’s problems (defensively and offensively) are partly rooted in those central midfield roles. Get Fabinho & Thiago back in there and I’d say the whole lot of them will be much improved. Melo’s presumably back up for those 2?
2️⃣ Elliot and Carvalho are lively players but alongside an ageing Henderson & Milner there’s just not the cohesion & stability to provide a base which in turn gives the wingbacks (and Salah) a chance to play at their max. It’s probably also the reason the whole defence looks so badly exposed and vulnerable so far this season.
3️⃣ This trend of making early subs in the wingback positions feels as though it’s likely to continue and that a pattern’s emerging to me. With Robbo starting midweek v Napoli can we even be sure that Tsimikas won’t start v Wolves in GW7❓ The risks are too big for me on Robbo now given his poor form when he’s on the pitch too.
4️⃣ Salah’s seemingly playing wider for longer peiods of matches. Others around him are taking up different positions. His creativity stats are up but his own goal threat stats are significantly down. Those metrics have basically flipped on their heads compared to last season 🙃…his XA has doubled yet his XG has halved 🤷♂️. Only 3 shots on target all season. He’s averaging 2.8 shots per game this season whereas that’s been 4.5 last season, 3.7 the season before that and 4.1 in 2019/20. When was the last time that we saw him cut inside and bend one into or towards the top corner❓I honestly can’t remember one 😔.
📈 Predicted FPL Pts GW7: Haaland 🇳🇴8.90, Salah 🇪🇬8.26, KDB 🇧🇪 7.17, TAA 🏴6.79
❌ Leicester v Aston Villa in GW7…or Rodgers v Gerrard… or the battle of who will be sacked next❓ Rodgers looks slightly closer to the door than Gerrard IMO.
📈 Clean Sheet % – LIV 55%, ARSE 52%, BRIG 44%, MAN C 44%, CHEL 38%, LEE 38%, MAN U 31%, SOU 29%
🇰🇷 Son’s been out of form this season but faces Man City in GW7 and enjoys playing them‼️…3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5️⃣ games v the champions. Nobody has had more shots this season (17) without scoring 😱. I think he’ll come good very soon.
🤔 Some thoughts on Chelsea:
1️⃣ Chelsea’s XGC this season = 1.29 per game – that’s terrible‼️ Worse even than Southampton and Everton. Chelsea conceded just 24 goals in Tuchel’s 🇩🇪 first 50 games in charge but they’ve now conceded 53 goals in Tuchel’s last 50 games in charge‼️ That’s some difference.
2️⃣ No big surprise for me that Tuchel was axed 🪓 and especially if you watched the game and his post-match interview after losing to Dynamo Zagreb midweek. He looked and sounded like a man that was already heading towards the door 🚪in Croatia 🇭🇷.
3️⃣ New ownership more often than not brings managerial change unless the incumbent is smashing it…which clearly Tuchel hasn’t been doing for a while now (understandable in some ways given the chaos behind the scenes) 🤷♀️
4️⃣ Conte leaves with an impressive enough win rate of 60% from 100 games as Chelsea manager though‼️ Conte’s record was 65.09% (106 games), Mourinho 63.55% (321 games), Ancelotti 61.47% (109 games), Ranieri 53.77% (199 games) and Vialli 53.15% (143 games). He’s an elite, successful manager but with a fairly short shelf life at each club he manages. It’ll be interesting to see where he lands next 🪂.
5️⃣ I’d expect an uptick ✅ in form imminently when a new manager is appointed. Looks as though Potter is a shoe in 👞. Good manager, good coach, must be a big concern for Brighton fans though. It’ll also be interesting to see how Potter gets on dealing with a different profile of footballer (i.e. bigger names, bigger egos and bigger stars).
📈 Over 2.5 goals % – LIV 50%, MAN C 48%, ARSE 42%, CHEL 29%, LEE 29%, BRIG 25%, MAN U 25%
🦊 How long now until Danny Ward is dropped by LEICS❓ As predicted pre-season, the LEICS goalkeeping double up has been an absolute train wreck 🚂. His returns sound like a DJ testing a mic 🎤…1,1,1,1,2,2. He’s been so bad that I don’t think I’ll even keep him on my Wildcard now as my bench goalie 🤷♂️. Surely Iverson will get his chance very soon albeit I doubt he’s a lot better.
🔫 There were 37 shots in the Merseyside derby…the most in any game this season and it finished 0-0‼️ Somehow Trent & Robbo conspired to score 1 FPL point each though due to their time on the pitch . Gotta laugh 🤣 or you’d cry 😭🤦🏼♂️.
🤷🏼♂️ Fun Fact – Ben Chilwell 🏴 was the first EVER Premier League substitute to both score a goal and provide an assist after coming on in GW6. He was one of the few bright performers v Zagreb but how will the whole Potter / Cucurella / Chilwell thing work out❓ I’d be going James over Chilwell if i was on a Wildcard 7…oh, I am🤣‼️
📈 Combined GW5 & GW6 Non-Penalty XG – 🥇Haaland 2.49, 🥈Isak 1.26, 🥉Kane 1.26 👀
🗓 Big fixture swings on the horizon 🏜 which need paying attention to particularly IMO with:
❌ Liverpool – horrible run GW8-GW12 che, BHA, ars, MCI, WHU.
✅ Newcastle 🇸🇦 – excellent run GW7 onwards: whu, BOU, ful, BRE, mun, EVE. Really like Pope, Trippier and Isak as picks. Shame ASM can’t keep himself fit 🦵🏾…never does though‼️
❌ Arsenal – SPURS, LIVERPOOL, leeds, MAN CITY from GW9-GW12. They do have EVERTON & brentford first you though. I’m likely only keeping one Arsenal player on my Wildcard even though I think their improvement under Arteta is impressive. I hope they continue to do well 👍.
✅ West Ham – excellent run GW7 onwards: NEW, eve, WOL, FUL, sou, liv, BOU, mun, CRY, LEI – note too that West Ham are actually ranked 4th best in the league for non-penalty XGC despite them having had some really tough fixtures. Only Man City, Arsenal & Spurs are ahead of them on that metric. Their defence could be worth considering for cleansheets if your structure needs a £4m-£4.5m type. Despite his lack of form so far I do think Bowen is worth keeping an eye 👁 on alongside new boy Paqueta.
❌ Wolves 🐺 with a horror run now…liv, MAN CITY, whu, chelsea are their next 4 games.
✅ Leicester – excellent run GW7 onwards: AVL, tot, FOR, bou, CRY, LEE, wol. Defensively they’ve been a shambles though and are ranked 19th for big chances conceded this season. They’ve not shown an awful lot offensively either tbf‼️ I do like Maddison as an option though 🤷♂️…I say that based on his pedigree and potential and not at all based on his current form. We shall see‼️
👹 Enough improvement has been seen now from Man Utd to justify a closer look at some of their assets IMO. Rashford, Anthony, Sancho & Dalot would be the lads I’d focus on personally. Malacia has been playing great (Martinez too) but I’ve not seen enough to suggest they’d be good FPL options.
💪 Armband – I’ll almost certainly be on Haaland 🇳🇴 captain again even though he faces a good Spurs team. Salah 🇪🇬 is also still an option for sure. Arsenal assets 🇧🇷 at home to Everton are options and so are Brighton 🇩🇪 🇧🇪 assets v Bournemouth if you’re happy to go with cheaper non-premium players. Not something that I’d do but each to their own 🤷♂️
🔮 Score Predictions for GW7:
FUL 1-1 CHE
BOU 1-2 BRI
LEI 2-1 VILLA
LIV 2-0 WOL
SOU 1-1 BRE
MAN C 2-1 TOT
ARS 2-0 EVE
WHU 1-1 NEW
CRY 1-1 MUN
LEE 2-1 FOR
🍟 If like me you’re on a Wildcard for GW7 here’s a pool of players I’d be focusing on. This list is not exhaustive but gives you an idea where my own focus has been. When reviewing you’ll also see some picks that you might think are a bit strange…that’s partly being driven by wishing to play 3 strikers each week – this affects what your 4th and 5th defenders need to look like as you wouldn’t want a load of money sat on your bench each GW 🪑
Goalies – Pope, Raya, Henderson (plus c. £4m duds as enablers…e.g. Begovic at Everton now that Pickford’s been ruled out for a few weeks).
Defenders – Trippier, Cancelo, James, Chilwell, Williams, TAA, Emerson, Fofana, Anderson, Zouma, Dalot, Saliba, Zouma, Patterson
Midfielders – Diaz, KDB, Martinelli, Son, Kulu, Zaha, Rashford, Andreas, Bowen, Paqueta, Salah, Gundogan, Sinisterra
Strikers – Isak, Haaland, Jesus, Mitrovic, Toney, Kane
🍟 WC8 or WC9 looking very nice too I reckon due to the fixture swings. If your squads are absolutely flying (and continue to over the coming weeks) here’s a radical idea for you…save your Wildcard until GW15 and effectively use it as an extra Free Hit 🥊 as we’re all gonna get ‘unlimited free transfers’ anyway during the World Cup break which occurs between GW16 and GW17. You do have to be a bit careful with that though squad value wise as they’ll be classed as proper transfers and then prices are frozen between GW16 and GW17. So if you sold Haaland on a GW15 Wildcard (quasi Free Hit approach) you’d lose the value that you’ve built up in him. Anyway, that’s probably a discussion and post for another day‼️. See the pinned article on creating squad value and how price changes work if you’re interested in learning about that aspect in more detail 📌.
🧠 Keep monitoring the midweek teamsheets, performances and match reports to help inform your transfer plans. Unless on a Wildcard it’s crazy to be making early transfers in weeks such as this. #️⃣ SCAP‼️
🇳🇴 I’ll finish as I started…with that brute Haaland‼️ As good as he is, owning him in FPL (even if you captain him) isn’t actually doing owners a lot of good rank wise 📈because of the Effective Ownership (EO) impact. Ideally you / we need a Man City asset who is assisting him for it to really pay off. I’m strongly looking at KDB on my WC7 for that reason. I’ll be working on my Wildcard over the next few days as (like any FPL manager) I need time to complete it‼️
🍀 Good luck for GW7 everyone. Go smash it 👊🏽
<Admin #Chindle13 >